CRISIL Market Intelligence And Analytics As Of 14 June 2024

CRISIL’s outlook on near-term rates

MUMBAI: In June, domestic G-sec yields are likely to be influenced by a range of factors, such as foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows, crude oil price movements, the rupee-dollar equation, outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee, (FOMC) domestic inflows into the debt market, and announcement of G-sec auctions, amongst others.

Three-month view

The 10-year G-sec yield is expected to react to FPI flows, crude prices, global interest rates, the CPI inflation print, rate decisions by the RBI MPC and FOMC, global cues, and liquidity concerns.

Framework for the outlook

CRISIL provides its outlook on key benchmark rates for different debt classes — 10-year G-secs, state development loans (SDLs), and corporate bonds (CBs) — based on statistical models and inputs from our in-house experts. We also incorporate our views on policy expectations, the macroeconomic outlook, key events (local and global), and market factors (liquidity and demand/supply).

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