Oil Futures Steady, Balancing Geopolitical Fears with Supply Forecasts

Markets analysis on behalf of Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill

Crude oil futures were steady after a bullish previous session, as concerns over the escalating Ukraine war and potential global supply disruptions continued to shape market sentiment. In the previous session, both Brent and U.S. WTI crude contracts saw notable gains, driven by fears that Russia’s intensified military actions could disrupt global oil supply, particularly from one of the world’s largest oil producers. These geopolitical tensions contribute to a bullish outlook for global crude prices in the near term, as market participants continue to factor in the possibility of significant disruptions to global supply, which could push prices higher despite other opposing market forces.

However, the gains seen in crude oil prices could be tempered by a range of other factors, such as swelling U.S. crude and gasoline stocks, alongside forecasts of surplus supply in the coming year. While geopolitical risks remain elevated, oil prices could largely stay within a set range due to the supply and demand dynamics.

Meanwhile, China’s recent announcement of policy measures aimed at improving trade, including support for energy product imports, adds an element of uncertainty to the global oil market. While this could provide some upside support for crude prices, particularly in terms of demand, the broader supply outlook points to a relatively neutral stance for the medium-term trajectory. These factors suggest that while bullish pressures from geopolitical risks may persist in the short term, the balance of supply and demand forces may limit further significant price increases in the medium term.