Gold Steady Above USD 4,100, Heads Into Month-End With Gains

By Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A

Gold saw some price swings on Friday but largely maintained its weekly levels amid reduced trading activity, with US markets observing a holiday and operating on a shorter schedule. A technical outage at CME Group also impacted market operations. Despite this, the precious metal is poised to finish the week higher, offsetting losses from the previous week and marking a fourth straight monthly gain.

Market sentiment continues to lean bullish. Expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut in December remain a key driver, with over an 85% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point reduction. Recent remarks from Fed officials pointing to softening labor markets have bolstered this outlook. Speculation about potential leadership shifts at the central bank has further reinforced dovish expectations.

Geopolitical factors, however, introduce some uncertainty. In Eastern Europe, ambiguous progress toward a ceasefire could trigger market volatility. A breakdown in negotiations may reignite demand for haven assets like gold.

Investors will monitor upcoming economic data for clues on monetary policy direction. Key releases such as PCE inflation figures, jobless claims, and PMI data—alongside speeches from Fed policymakers—could sway market sentiment if they alter current expectations for rate cuts.