Above normal temperature likely to be experienced between March-May due to El Nino: UN weather agency

El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over a lot of the worldwide oceans are anticipated to lead to above-normal temperatures over virtually all land areas within the subsequent three months, the United Nations mentioned on Tuesday.

A brand new Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there may be a few 60 p.c likelihood of El Nino persisting throughout March-May and a 80 p.c likelihood of impartial circumstances (neither El Niño or La Niña) in April to June.

There is an opportunity of La Niña creating later within the yr, however the odds are at the moment unsure, WMO mentioned.

What is El Nino?

El Nino happens on common each two to seven years, and usually lasts 9 to 12 months.

It is a naturally occurring local weather sample related to warming of the ocean floor within the central and jap tropical Pacific Ocean.

It influences weather and storm patterns in several components of the world. But it takes place within the context of a local weather being modified by human actions.

GreenHouse fuel

Referring to the affect of GreenHouse fuel, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned, “Every month since June 2023 has set a brand new month-to-month temperature report – and 2023 was by far the warmest yr on report. El Niño has contributed to these report temperatures, however heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the primary offender.”

“Ocean floor temperatures within the equatorial Pacific clearly mirror El Niño. But sea floor temperatures in different components of the globe have been persistently and unusually excessive for the previous 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the best on report for January. This is worrying and cannot be defined by El Nino alone,” says Celeste Saulo.

El Nino usually has the best affect on the worldwide local weather within the second yr of its growth – on this occasion 2024.

The persevering with, albeit weaker, El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over a lot of the worldwide oceans are anticipated to lead to above-normal temperatures over virtually all land areas within the subsequent three months, and affect regional rainfall patterns, in accordance to a Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by WMO to accompany its El Nino/La Nina Update

Early warnings save lives

The present El Nino occasion, which developed in June 2023, was at its strongest between November and January.

It displayed a peak worth of about 2.0°C above the 1991 to 2020 common sea floor temperature for the jap and central tropical Pacific Ocean.

This made it one of many 5 strongest El Nino occasions ever, although it was weaker than the 1997/98 and 2015/2016 occasions.

El Nino is principally a seasonal local weather phenomenon with local weather impacts on seasonal local weather averages however could make excessive weather and climate-events extra possible in sure areas.

Furthermore, the seasonal forecasts are discovered to be extra correct throughout El Nino and La Nina occasions, notably within the tropics, and this emphasizes the pivotal function of early warnings to help decision-making and improve preparedness and anticipatory motion.

El Nino is related to elevated rainfall triggering flooding within the Horn of Africa and the southern United States of America, and unusually dry and heat circumstances in South East Asia, Australia and southern Africa.

It has exacerbated drought in northern South America and has additionally contributed to drier and hotter circumstances in components of southern Africa.

“El Nino occasions have a significant affect on societies and economies. Accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO group helped international locations put together prematurely to strive to restrict the injury in local weather delicate sectors like agriculture, water assets and well being. Early warnings of weather and local weather extremes related to El Niño have saved numerous lives,” mentioned Celeste Saulo.

Global Seasonal Climate Update

El Nino and La Nina are main – however not the one – drivers of the Earth’s local weather system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now additionally points common Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of different local weather phenomenon such because the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

The Global Seasonal Climate Update says that Positive temperature anomalies are anticipated over virtually the complete Northern Hemisphere besides within the far south-eastern a part of North America, in addition to over a lot of the land areas within the Southern Hemisphere.

Predictions for rainfall within the forthcoming three months (March to May) are related to a number of the canonical rainfall patterns related to El Nino.

The WMO El Nino/La NIna and Global Seasonal Climate Updates as a part of the Early Warnings for All initiative are primarily based on forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and can be found to help governments, the United Nations, humanitarian businesses and decision-makers to mobilize preparations and defend lives and livelihoods.

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will carefully monitor the state of affairs within the months to come and supply up to date outlooks on the dissipation of El Niño and the attainable growth of La Nina.

Uncertainty is usually higher in long-lead forecasts made through the boreal spring and early summer season .