The escalating conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the Indian equity market, leading to investors losing over Rs 14 lakh crore in just two trading sessions. This significant downturn is primarily attributed to the geopolitical tensions and the resultant surge in crude oil prices. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) saw a sharp decline in the market capitalization of all listed companies, skewing from Rs 475 lakh crore to Rs 461 lakh crore.
The Sensex, a benchmark index of the BSE, closed down 808 points or 0.98 per cent at 81,688. Similarly, the Nifty, a key index on the National Stock Exchange, was down 235 points or 0.93 per cent at 25,014. The bearish sentiment was pervasive across sectors, with major companies like M&M, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, ITC, HUL, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Reliance, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank and NTPC emerging as the top losers.
On the other hand, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, TCS and SBI were the top gainers, indicating a mixed bag of performance across the market. The midcap and smallcap stocks were not immune to the selling pressure either. The Nifty Midcap index closed at 58,747, down 550 points or 0.93 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index settled at 18,758, down 193 points or 1.02 per cent. The India VIX, an indicator of market volatility, closed at 14.12, up 7.21 per cent, reflecting the heightened uncertainty and risk in the market. Market experts attribute the bearish sentiment to the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resultant surge in crude oil prices. Investors have adopted a sell-on recovery strategy, leading to a widespread sell-off in the market.
The current market downturn has also been exacerbated by the selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). On October 3, FIIs sold equities worth Rs 15,243 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 12,914 crore on the same day. This indicates a significant pullback from the Indian market by FIIs, adding to the downward pressure on the market. The impact of the Middle East crisis on the Indian stock market is reminiscent of similar historical events where geopolitical tensions have led to significant market downturns. For instance, during the Gulf War in the early 1990s, Indian markets experienced a similar slump due to the surge in oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions have driven crude prices higher, dampening hopes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the upcoming policy meeting. This, coupled with noticeable selling by foreign investors, is adding to the market’s strain. While there may be a pause or slight rebound after the recent slide, the overall bias will remain negative unless Nifty decisively reclaims the 25,600 level. The current market scenario underscores the importance of diversification and risk management in investment strategies. Investors need to be cognizant of the potential impact of geopolitical events on their investments and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
While the short-term outlook for the Indian equity market remains uncertain due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, the long-term fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong. Therefore, investors should adopt a long-term perspective and avoid panic selling during such market downturns. The market dynamics are a testament to the interconnectedness of global economies and the influence of geopolitical events on financial markets.
