As a ‘Super’ El Nino Builds, Asia’s Rice Belt Braces for a Rainfall Gamble

By Lakshmi Prabha

The World Meteorological Organization estimates an 80 % to 90 % chance of a strong‑to‑super El Niño persisting through the remainder of 2026, prompting heightened vigilance among food‑security experts and commodity traders throughout South and Southeast Asia.

Goldman Sachs projects that the phenomenon could push regional food inflation up by over two percentage points in the coming year, with rice, palm oil, sugar and coffee identified as the most vulnerable commodities.

However, ground‑level observations reveal a more nuanced situation than the headline figures imply. Dr Naresh Kumar Soora, Head and Principal Scientist of the Environmental Sciences Division at ICAR‑IARI, New Delhi, notes that the decisive factor for India’s rice harvest this year will be the rainfall pattern in the upcoming weeks, rather than the mere El Niño designation.

“September rainfall is critical for rice yields in India,” Dr Soora told IBTimes SG, noting that a delayed or deficient monsoon historically hurts rainfed paddy the most.

What a ‘Super’ El Niño Really Entails

El Niño represents the warm phase of the natural Pacific Ocean cycle termed ENSO (El Niño‑Southern Oscillation). Approximately every two to seven years, weakening trade winds allow warm water that normally accumulates in the western Pacific to move eastward, raising temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The pattern typically forms between March and June, reaches its peak from November to February, and persists for nine to twelve months.

Dr Soora defines a ‘super’ El Niño as a year in which the sea‑surface temperature of the central and eastern Pacific exceeds the long‑term average by more than +2 °C. This precise, quantifiable anomaly has historically coincided with some of the most disruptive monsoon seasons, notably 2015‑16.

Nevertheless, Soora warns against using the El Niño label alone to predict India’s monsoon behavior. He observes that while Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be below average during El Niño years, other variables—including the broader ENSO dynamics—also shape the scale and distribution of rainfall changes.

Why Rice and Why September Matter

Among India’s major crops, rainfed rice faces the greatest risk. According to Soora, El Niño years usually bring reduced rainfall across the country, primarily impacting rainfed crops such as rice.

This susceptibility stems from rice’s biology: the plant requires standing water throughout its vegetative and reproductive phases, yet about half of India’s cultivated area lacks irrigation to compensate when rains fail.

A monsoon does not have to fail completely to inflict damage; a mistimed dry period during flowering or grain‑filling can lower yields even when total seasonal rainfall appears sufficient.

India experienced one of its driest Junes in over a century before rainfall revived in early July, partially closing the seasonal deficit. Government data show that kharif sowing—the summer planting window for rice, cotton, soybeans and pulses—trailed last year’s pace.

Dr Soora added that the July rains have alleviated the June shortfall, though the early delay has not been completely erased. ‘This year’s July precipitation has offset the June deficit,’ he noted, adding that sowing is now roughly on schedule apart from a few localities.

Looking ahead, Soora characterizes the outcome as an open question. ‘In India, rainfed rice yields could be impacted by a super El Niño, but it is premature to estimate any loss,’ he remarked, suggesting that clarity may emerge by next month.

A New Normal of Dry Spells and Intense Downpours

Looking beyond the current season, Soora highlights a longer‑term shift in India’s rainfall regime that is increasingly difficult to attribute solely to El Niño. ‘Atmospheric warming is producing prolonged dry intervals punctuated by intense downpours, which are emerging as the new norm,’ he explained.

He referenced modelling research conducted by ICAR’s Environmental Modelling Lab, located within the Environmental Sciences Division of IARI, New Delhi, which examined 21 global climate models under the CMIP6 framework.

‘Analysis of the CMIP6 ensemble of 21 global climate models at the Environmental Modelling lab of IARI’s Environmental Sciences Division indicates that climate hazards such as heat waves, dry spells, cold spells and altered rainfall patterns could increase five‑ to seventeen‑fold in the coming decades,’ he told IBTimes.

In essence, the volatility already evident in this year’s monsoon—a markedly dry June succeeded by a sharp July rebound—may become the prevailing pattern rather than an anomaly.

Soora also pointed out that farms dependent on canal or groundwater irrigation face risks, albeit for different reasons than rainfed paddy. ‘Irrigated operations are likewise prone to impact,’ he stated.

‘In irrigated settings, irrigation usually mitigates dry‑spell impacts, yet extreme rainfall can still inflict damage,’ he added, referring to the flood and water‑logging hazards that accompany intense downpours following extended dry periods.

The WMO estimates an 80 % to 90 % likelihood of a strong‑to‑super El Niño persisting through 2026, a threshold that Sharma describes as central‑eastern Pacific sea‑surface temperatures exceeding the long‑term mean by more than 2 °C. Freepix.

Guidance for Farmers

Given the season’s uncertain outlook, ICAR’s advice to growers concentrates on minimizing risk rather than attempting loss predictions.

Dr Soora outlined ten urgent measures: capturing rainwater in farm ponds for supplemental irrigation; adopting shorter‑duration varieties that mature before late‑season dry spells arrive; and substituting less water‑intensive crops—such as millets, pulses and oilseeds—for paddy in the most vulnerable districts.

For acreage that remains under rice, he advised employing the raised‑bed technique to prevent water from pooling around roots during heavy rains, using crop residue as mulch to retain soil moisture, and maintaining weed‑free fields to reduce competition for limited water.

He also stressed the importance of adequate drainage, allowing surplus water to be diverted into farm ponds instead of stagnating, and recommended transitioning to sprinkler, drip or rain‑gun irrigation where feasible, enriching soils with organic matter to boost water retention, and reducing fertilizer applications that can exacerbate crop stress under dry conditions.

‘These represent some of the key actions farmers are urged to implement,’ Soora remarked, noting that additional recommendations exist but the listed steps can be acted upon immediately.

Premature Conclusions

At present, the narrative surrounding this year’s El Niño in India centers less on verified losses and more on a shrinking window of uncertainty, with the June deficit partially alleviated.

Sowing has returned to near‑normal levels across most areas, yet the pivotal month of September—still two months off—remains uncertain; according to Soora’s modelling, even a season deemed ‘normal’ could increasingly feature intermittent dry spells and abrupt, damaging downpours.

Whether this episode will be recorded alongside 2015‑16 as a year of substantial crop loss, or prove to be a false alarm mitigated by a timely monsoon rebound, remains an open question. Soora declined to speculate prematurely—a stance that underscores how current coverage of this El Niño leans on richer data, advanced modelling, and a restrained approach to conjecture.