India has a strong economic runway for at least next 15-20 years: Citi India chief

How does Citi perceive the growth prospects in India?

We remain strongly bullish on India and regard the country as one of the most compelling long‑term growth narratives worldwide. India blends macro‑economic resilience, political stability, demographic vigor, and policy continuity—a mix rarely seen among emerging markets. Even after leaving the consumer banking space in India three years ago, our institutional business has grown markedly. Today our franchise is larger—both in balance‑sheet size and profitability—than when we ran retail and institutional operations together. This growth stems from a sharper focus on our core strengths, especially institutional banking, capital markets, transaction banking, and cross‑border financing.

We believe India enjoys a robust economic runway for at least the next 15‑20 years, fueled by a youthful population, rising consumption, and sustained infrastructure spending. With roughly 62‑63 percent of GDP driven by consumption, the nation is poised to stay among the fastest‑growing major economies globally. India has navigated geopolitical and economic shocks better than many emerging peers by diversifying energy sources and preserving steady bilateral ties.

How significant is India to Citi’s global business today?

India has become one of Citigroup’s most important markets worldwide, both in revenue contribution and strategic relevance. In the bank’s global revenues—just over $80 billion—India adds more than $2 billion. Excluding Citi’s global consumer banking business (since we withdrew retail banking in India) makes the comparison even more striking. On a like‑for‑like institutional basis, India accounts for roughly 4‑5 percent of Citi’s global revenues, positioning it among the bank’s top five international franchises outside North America.

What are the key themes driving India’s long‑term growth?

We see several structural forces propelling India toward a developed‑economy status. The government’s Viksit Bharat vision aims to lift per‑capita income from under $3,000 today to above $10,000 in the coming decades. Achieving that target demands massive investment across infrastructure, manufacturing, energy transition, and social sectors. Infrastructure spend is expected to cover roads, ports, airports, power, logistics, and urban development. We also view climate transition and renewable energy not as optional but as economic necessities for India.

India will need capital investments of $8‑10 trillion over the next two decades. Domestic savings alone cannot meet this need, making foreign capital essential for the country’s growth ambitions. We anticipate foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio inflows, sovereign wealth funds, private equity, development finance institutions, and institutional investors playing major roles. We see ourselves as a crucial conduit channeling global capital into India, supporting both government and corporate financing requirements.

What opportunities do you see in mergers and acquisitions (M&A)?

We expect M&A activity in India to rise markedly over the next decade. We have long advocated for Indian banks to take a more active role in acquisition financing. Traditionally, the financing pool for such deals was dominated by foreign banks, especially Japanese and European institutions. Indian banks now boast stronger capital adequacy and greater lending capacity, which will broaden the acquisition‑financing market. We anticipate two broad trends shaping deal‑making in India: growing demand for high‑quality Indian assets from private‑equity and global investors, and succession‑related shifts in family‑owned businesses where later‑generation promoters may opt not to continue traditional operations.

These dynamics should create more consolidation opportunities across sectors. As a leading M&A and equity‑capital‑markets advisor, our strategy is to originate transactions and syndicate them across multiple Indian banks rather than rely on exclusive partnerships.

Which business segments are driving Citi India’s growth?

Our operations are organized around four major verticals: large Indian corporates; financial institutions; multinational subsidiaries; and cross‑border corridor businesses. We remain among the top banking partners for many of India’s largest conglomerates, including Reliance Industries and Tata Group. The financial institutions business serves banks, NBFCs, mutual funds, insurers, hedge funds, and asset managers. However, the multinational subsidiaries segment is the crown jewel of our India franchise, and its size is about one‑and‑a‑half times that of the local corporate or financial institutions businesses.

Among international corridors, the US‑India route remains dominant, where we hold nearly 60 percent market share. Continental Europe‑India business is also strong. The fastest‑growing segment, however, is Asia‑to‑Asia corridors, especially Japan‑India (focused on infrastructure financing), Korea‑India (driven by automobiles and consumer durables), and Taiwan‑India (linked to electronics and semiconductor manufacturing). The Taiwan‑India corridor has accelerated significantly since the pandemic due to supply‑chain diversification and semiconductor investments.