JPMorgan CEO warns private credit downturn could be worse than expected

Speaking at a conference, Jamie Dimon warned that the lack of a credit downturn lately could make any future slump more severe.
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Mike Segar

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon warned once more that a potential credit‑market slump might turn out more severe than many anticipate, despite his bank and other Wall Street firms delivering a strong quarter with resilient loan books.

Within the private‑credit arena, Dimon noted on Tuesday at a Norges Bank Investment Management gathering that with over 1,000 players active, not every firm is likely to weather the next downturn.

“A number of these firms may be sharp, but I can assure you not every one of the thousand will shine,” Dimon remarked. “Given that and the current underwriting environment, the prolonged absence of a credit recession means that when one finally arrives it could hit harder than many expect.”

“It won’t be catastrophic, but it will be worse than many anticipate in private credit,” he added, noting that a similar dynamic could affect certain banks as well.

With growing concerns about the $1.8 trillion private‑credit sector surfacing over the past months, Dimon has been sounding warnings on various fronts. In his annual letter issued earlier this month, he stated that private credit “probably does not” constitute a systemic threat—a point he repeated on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, JPMorgan is not retreating from the arena. Its asset‑management division is in talks with institutional investors to secure several billion dollars for a private‑credit strategy that will be originated by the bank’s commercial‑banking team.

Dimon also warned that geopolitical strains—including the Iran conflict—are adding to price pressures, though he said he is not presently alarmed by inflation. He has previously likened inflation risks to a “skunk” at the party.

“My perspective is that numerous inflationary forces are present—among them the Iran war, global remilitarization, worldwide infrastructure demands, and our fiscal deficits,” Dimon said.

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Published on April 28, 2026