RBI likely to leave repo rate unchanged this week
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RBI expected to maintain repo rate, allowing for economic growth and liquidity transmission
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Economists anticipate the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold the benchmark repo rate steady at 5.25% while retaining its neutral policy stance during this week’s meeting, as indicated by a survey of 11 experts.
Gaura Sen Gupta, Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank, noted that the FY26 Economic Survey forecasts real GDP growth between 6.8-7.2%. With India sustaining growth near 7%, monetary policy easing through previous rate reductions and liquidity measures continues supporting credit expansion. The bank projects an extended pause in rates alongside ongoing liquidity operations.
Sujit Kumar, Chief Economist at NaBFID, expects unchanged policy rates amid vigilance over rising crude oil prices and rupee volatility. He emphasized that the neutral stance aligns with stable economic performance despite global uncertainties, adding that liquidity infusion through term VRR operations and OMO purchases will facilitate monetary transmission. The central bank may adjust growth projections to match first advance estimates while potentially revising Q1FY27 inflation forecasts upward due to commodity price pressures.
maintain the momentum
Rajani Sinha of CareEdge Ratings predicts status quo on rates and stance, noting that inflation projections could technically permit another 25 basis point reduction. However, she believes the MPC will preserve policy flexibility, opting for caution unless growth decelerates significantly. The 125 basis points cumulative easing since February 2025 continues to permeate the economy, warranting observation.
Contrasting this view, Soumyajit Niyogi of India Ratings & Research highlighted the possibility of a late-cycle 25 basis point reduction to 5%, emphasizing the RBI’s need to sustain accommodative measures through innovative liquidity tools like extended tenor VRR auctions and OMO purchases.
Published on February 2, 2026
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