Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world

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Between a coercive US and a threatening China

Since the early 2000s, India’s geopolitical strategy has resembled that of a cautious gambler—increasing its stakes in relations with the U.S. while avoiding full alignment. This approach yielded economic and military benefits. However, recent U.S. policies under Trump, including trade penalties and diplomatic missteps, have forced India to reassess its reliance on Washington.

India’s multi-alignment strategy aims to balance partnerships, mitigating risks from over-dependence on any single power. While critics argue this approach undermines deeper U.S.-India cooperation, the current U.S. stance is accelerating India’s hedging strategies. However, shifting away from the West entirely would be unwise. Europe offers India a viable path to diversify partnerships, combining economic resilience, technological innovation, and reduced strategic vulnerability to China.

The view from New Delhi

India’s foreign policy has evolved from non-alignment to multi-alignment, driven by strategic autonomy and global influence ambitions. Modi’s leadership emphasizes India’s civilizational identity and a vision of multipolarity where India emerges as a “leading power.” This involves strengthening defense ties, integrating into global trade, and asserting influence in multilateral institutions.

A brief history of Indian foreign policy

Post-independence, India championed non-alignment, distancing itself from Cold War blocs. Economic liberalization in the 1990s and growing tensions with China later pushed India closer to the U.S., while maintaining ties with Russia and other partners. Modi’s tenure has seen a sharper focus on strategic partnerships, technological self-reliance, and regional security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

China: A persistent rivalry

Despite economic engagement, India views China as its primary security threat due to border disputes, military modernization, and diplomatic rivalry in South Asia. Although recent U.S. pressures might push India toward temporary diplomacy with Beijing, long-term competition is inevitable, driven by territorial disputes and China’s regional influence.

Russia: A partnership in flux

Russia remains an energy and arms supplier but is increasingly eclipsed by India’s partnerships with the West. The Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s strategic decline, reinforcing India’s pivot toward technologically advanced allies. While India maintains ties for legacy defense deals, its long-term reliance on Russia is diminishing.

Trump’s America and Europe: crisis and potential

Trump’s tariffs and diplomatic unpredictability have strained U.S.-India relations, undermining trust in Washington’s reliability. Europe, by contrast, has gained credibility in India’s eyes due to its post-Ukraine defense investments and lower geopolitical volatility. A deeper EU-India partnership, spanning trade, tech, and security, is now a strategic priority for New Delhi.

Sources of India’s global clout

India leverages its economic growth, technological innovation, and diplomatic networks to expand global influence. However, it faces challenges in matching China’s economic heft and military power.

Economic potential

India’s demographic dividend and reform momentum position it as a rising economic power. However, protectionist tendencies, bureaucratic hurdles, and reliance on Chinese supply chains hinder full potential. Trade agreements with Europe and investments in green tech could bolster India’s economic resilience.

Technological innovation

India is emerging as a leader in digital infrastructure, AI, and semiconductors. International tech partnerships, particularly with Europe, can enhance its role in global supply chains while reducing dependence on China.

Leadership in multilateral forums and the global south

Through the G20, BRICS, and other forums, India advocates for a multipolar order that accommodates developing nations. Its digital public infrastructure (DPI) model is a key export, fostering south-south cooperation.

Barriers to India’s rise

Regional conflicts, economic disparities, and governance inefficiencies limit India’s capacity to achieve great-power status.

Regional conflicts

Border tensions with China and Pakistan consume military resources, complicating India’s strategic focus. Meanwhile, China’s military and economic dominance in South Asia challenges India’s regional leadership.

Economic limitations

India’s GDP per capita trails China’s significantly, and protectionism impedes growth. Energy dependence and climate vulnerabilities further constrain development.

Domestic governance

Political centralization under Modi risks exacerbating regional tensions, while democratic backsliding could weaken India’s soft power. Bureaucratic red tape and state-level conflicts slow economic reforms and foreign investment.

Towards a deeper EU-India partnership

India seeks to mitigate U.S. unpredictability and Chinese dominance by deepening ties with Europe. A potential EU-India trade deal, defense collaboration, and technology sharing offer mutual benefits. Europe’s geopolitical evolution aligns with India’s multi-alignment strategy, providing a platform for long-term cooperation.

About the author

James Crabtree is a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Acknowledgments

This paper benefited from insights by experts in Indian foreign policy, economics, and geopolitics. The research was supported by the Re:Order project and Stiftung Mercator.