Rupee closes at a four-week low
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Image showing a US hundred‑dollar bill alongside Indian rupee notes as a background.
| Photo Credit:
suman bhaumik
On Monday, the rupee slipped 29 paise to a four‑week low, pressured by higher crude oil costs and dollar outflows from foreign portfolio investors as tensions in West Asia intensified.
The rupee finished at 95.62 against the dollar, up from the prior close of 95.33. During the session it traded between a low of 95.58 and a high of 95.86 per dollar, according to CCIL figures.
Brent crude climbed to $79 a barrel from $76 the previous week, while the United States and Iran exchanged strikes on strategic targets in the ongoing West Asia conflict that began on February 28, 2026.
Foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers in Indian equities, offloading about $331 million worth of shares, according to NSDL data.
Kunal Sodhani, Head of Treasury at Shinhan Bank India, noted that the rupee’s movement reflects both global and domestic forces: higher oil prices raise India’s import bill and dollar demand, while a strong US dollar—bolstered by Fed policy expectations and rising Treasury yields—continues to weigh on emerging‑market currencies.
He added that geopolitical strains have weakened global risk appetite, making foreign portfolio flows more cautious. Domestically, the RBI is aiming to curb excess volatility with measured interventions, and the steady unwinding of its forward short position gives it greater leeway to steer the rupee.
Meanwhile, India’s persistent trade deficit, corporate dollar needs, and external payment obligations keep generating structural demand for the US currency.
Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the rupee fell sharply as crude oil prices surged and geopolitical worries resurfaced.
Because India relies heavily on oil imports, the rupee faced pressure and turned out to be the weakest Asian currency. Looking ahead, he expects the spot USD/INR pair to trade between 94.90 and 96.00.
Published on July 13, 2026
